Best MLB bets today (Rockies a big dog living in New York vs. Mets)
Between the start of college football and a full slate of baseball, my brain feels overwhelmed with dopamine.
I’m not a doctor either, and I haven’t been a good student in any particular science class in my life. Can watching and betting on games actually increase dopamine levels in your neurological system? Actually, I have no idea, but I know I circled three games to bet on in the big leagues today.
Here are my three favorite bets on the board for Saturday’s MLB action.
Rich Hill OVER 3.5 strikeouts – Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Hill is figuratively “over the hill” in his 42-year-old season, but 3.5 strikeouts for his home projection today looks like a gross overreaction to his last handful of starts.
Is it a problem not to retire an Atlanta Braves batter by strikeout when he’s third in baseball? Sure, but Hill bounced back the following week with four punches in five rounds, and still averaging just under seven Ks per nine rounds.
Today’s game at Fenway is mid-afternoon when the shadows will favor early game pitchers. The Rays are also eighth in baseball this season.
On positive odds, I don’t mind a dice roll with such a low bar for Hill to climb.
Colorado Rockies ML vs. New York Mets
As Reed Wallach mentioned in his betting preview for this game earlier today, this is a workable game for the Rockies on the road.
They rank among the best in baseball relative to left-handed pitchers in batting average, and are in the top five in both weighted on-base average (wOBA), as well as weighted runs created over (wRC+) against lefties.
Peterson had a solid year as a Mets swingman, but had a rocky final start; go just 4.2 IP against the Phillies; allowing eight hits in the process.
Kyle Freeland’s inability to get swings and misses scares me, but then again, this Mets roster doesn’t tend to hit much anyway. New York also had its issues against lefties; ranking only 19th in Majors in wOBA vs.
Colorado is sneaky here, and at more than 2 to 1, I think that’s fantastic value.
UNDER 7.5 – Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinals
If there was ever a time to lean on both teams’ starting pitch, this game is as ideal as it gets.
Jordan Montgomery has gotten better and better since arriving in St. Louis, allowing just one run in August. He upped his K/9 from 7.76 on the season to 8.42, and while his ERA is sparkling at just 0.35, his Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP, is also terrific at 1.72; showing this race is no coincidence.
As for Charlie Morton, although he’s been known to blow up on occasion, his business has been downright nasty lately. Not only did he pitch consecutive games with double-digit strikeouts, but he did so against two of baseball’s toughest swing-and-miss teams in the Mets and Astros. Morton has also gone at least six innings in his last four starts.
With two dominant starters on the mound and the wind blowing at 6-8 mph tonight in St. Louis, I’ll be happy to support the under in a marquee game in the National League.